Obama and McCain start off even, in fundraising. That's a bit of a surprise. And actually, Obama is behind when we factor in the committees and the GE, but we all expect that Obama will increase his advantage in the coming months.
Obama spent $27M in May, and raised $22M. He has $33M on hand for the nomination, and $10M on hand for the GE.
McCain spent $12M in May, and raised $22M. He has $32M on hand for the nomination, and will get $84M in public financing for the GE.
There is also a big disparity among the committees, the DNC and the RNC. From April, the DNC had $4M on hand, and the RNC had $40M on hand.
So, we start off behind, with five months to go. Obama and the DNC having $37M on hand and $10M for the GE, McCain and the RNC having $72M on hand and $84M for the GE. That totals $47M for the DNC/Obama and $156M for the RNC/McCain, over a 3:1 ratio in McCain's favor. But that will change.
The upside of McCain for the GE is limited by that $84M amount, and he'll have to rely upon the RNC to increase their cash on hand. Obama will not only be able to raise millions more himself, I also expect that they'll focus on significantly increasing the DNC's cash on hand.
Update [2008-6-22 12:32:21 by Jerome Armstrong]: I corrected some errors above, and got the May committee numbers. The RNC reports having raised $24M in May, and cash on hand of $54M. The DNC reports having raised $5M and has $4M cash on hand. That widens the cash on hand disparity: $37M for Obama/DNC with $10M for the GE; $86M for McCain/RNC with $84M for the GE. The Obama/DNC total of $47M against the McCain/RNC total $190M is much more of a disparity than I would have expected. But, there lots of upside for Obama, and we'll see how much he closes the gap in June for a good indication. No alarm bells yet.
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